000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE OCT 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER NICARAGUA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF NEW DEEP CONVECTION ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SE PART OF NICARAGUA. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 4N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 8 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AND IS SEEN FROM 7N-11N WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 8N90W 9N100W 7.5N117W 8N120W 10N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W-100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-13N WEST OF 134W...AND WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 12N. A RATHER VIGOROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N134W...AND EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ESE ABOUT 20-25 KT LOCATED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N132W. A 3 DEG WIDE JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 20N126.5W NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 25N122W TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65-70 KT NEAR THE JET STREAM CORE FROM 120W-126W. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION...AND IS MARKED AS A 60 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 32N134W TO 29N140W. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONGER NLY SURGE N OF 32N. THIS SURGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEFORE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N117W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 21N. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 135W...AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 132W FROM 6N-17N. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N114W WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AREA NOTED FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 115W-123W. E OF 115W... MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...AND EXTENSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE MENTIONED ABOVE...AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A RATHER FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N100W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 8N88W. BROAD NE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA E OF THE ANTICYCLONE. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IS STEERED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY THIS FLOW. IN ADDITION UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS BEING CHANNELED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER ITS ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WHILE LIGHTER NE GAP FLOW OF 20 KT IS BEING OBSERVED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FLOW HERE SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 36 HRS AND CONTINUE DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HRS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS SEEN SOUTH OF 4N. $$ AGUIRRE