000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS/TSTMS...IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PACIFIC 
WATERS AT THE MOMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 17N MOVING SLOWLY W 5-10 KT. A 
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE 
ITCZ...AND HAS POSSIBLY BEEN AIDED BY STRONG FLOW FROM THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N 
BETWEEN 96W-110W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N83W 9N101W 6N126W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 6N E OF 83W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 98W-110W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS 
FROM 7N-14N W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST AND EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 
VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED IN QUIKSCAT DATA N OF 20N W OF 
110W. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH NEAR 
35N134W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA 
THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FAR NW PART TONIGHT. FARTHER S...A 
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE VICINITY OF 135W S OF 20N AND 
IS SPARKING A MODEST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 130W-135W. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG 
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 22N114W WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 103W-125W. PART OF THIS DRY AIR 
IS BEING ADVECTED SWD ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH 
LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

E OF 100W...
A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N96W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
PANAMA TO 13N105W. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WITHIN A 
FAIRLY NARROW BELT ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO DRIER AIR COMING FROM 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR AS WELL AS FROM THE GAP FLOWS FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00 UTC 
INDICATED WINDS JUST ABOVE 30 KT OVER TEHUANTEPEC AND AT LEAST 
20 KT OVER PAPAGAYO. BOTH OF THESE GAP FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO.

$$
BERG