000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SURGE OF 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS/TSTMS...IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PACIFIC 
WATERS AT THE MOMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W S OF 17N MOVING SLOWLY W 5-10 KT. A 
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE 
ITCZ...AND HAS POSSIBLY BEEN AIDED BY STRONG FLOW FROM THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-14N 
BETWEEN 97W-106W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N83W 9N101W 6N126W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N E OF 82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 93W-106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 133W.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST AND EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 
VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED IN QUIKSCAT DATA N OF 20N W OF 
110W. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH NEAR 
37N135W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA 
THAT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE FAR NW PART BY TONIGHT. FARTHER S...A 
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE VICINITY OF 135W S OF 20N AND 
IS SPARKING A MODEST AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
16N-20N BETWEEN 128W-133W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 
140W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N115W WITH A 
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 13N-24N 
BETWEEN 102W-125W. PART OF THIS DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED SWD ON 
THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

E OF 100W...
A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N94W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
PANAMA TO 14N107W. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WITHIN A 
FAIRLY NARROW BELT ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO DRIER AIR COMING FROM 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR AS WELL AS FROM THE GAP FLOWS FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. HIGH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS 
MORNING INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 32 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND 25 KT NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. BOTH OF THESE 
GAP FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO.

$$
BERG