000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
76W-80W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W N OF 4N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
MOVING W 10 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-12N BETWEEN 98W-104W.  

ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N90W 11N102W 6N120W 10N140W.  
OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 83W-96W.  
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 105W-111W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 
134W-140W.     

...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES ARE N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N BETWEEN 78W-140W WITH 
TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES...MENTIONED ABOVE...AND A SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 19N132W 11N135W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 129W-132W...AND FROM 11N-14N 
BETWEEN 133W-139W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.  STRONG RIDGE OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  STRONG SW CARIBBEAN EASTERLIES ARE ALSO PRODUCING 
SOME WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA.  FURTHER 
N...BROAD E PAC RIDGE IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS ALONG 
30N125W 18N115W. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 120W-140W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS ALONG 116W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N-30N BETWEEN 120W-130W.  A SMALL 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MAZATLAN WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 
102W-112W. A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 7N BETWEEN 80W-102W.   

$$
FORMOSA