000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021032
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 7N84W 11N99W 7N116W 9N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 90 NM WIDE FROM 92W TO 102W. 

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 5N INTO MEXICO MOVING W 5 KT.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N128W DIGS S TO 10N127W THEN TO 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 5N123W PUTTING A DENT IN UPPER RIDGE 
STRONGHOLD W OF 110W.  RIDGE CENTERED AT 16N115W NOW SHIFTS E 
WITH MINOR TROUGH ALONG 105W N OF 16N.  DOWNSTREAM...ANOTHER 
RIDGE CENTERED AT 18N92W SITS OVER S MEXICO AND ENTIRE CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  

SWATH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AXIS OF FIRST TROUGH WHILE MOST AIR 
MASS W OF AXIS REMAINS VERY DRY.  SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGES KEEPS 
HEALTHY SHEAR OVER ITCZ LIMITING ANY DEEP DEVELOPMENT. 

AT THE SURFACE...TRADES CONTINUE UNDER BROAD E PAC 1024 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTER WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 15N115W.  STRONG RIDGE OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING GAP WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
STRONG SW CARIBBEAN EASTERLIES PROMPTS SOME WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA DURING NEXT 24 HRS.     

$$
WALLY BARNES