000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012037
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N100W 8N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
77W AND 104W. 
TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 100W N OF 5N INTO MEXICO IS MOVING W 
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROUGH AND RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE N PART OF THE 
AREA. TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 137W AND IS DIGGING SOUTH 
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 122W AND 
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WELL BEYOND 32N. BROKEN MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOCATED W OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO 130W N OF ABOUT 
25N. A SHARP TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO ALONG 108W N 
OF 20N. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT IS ANCHORED OVER THE 
AREA FROM 8N TO 18N W OF 110W WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 16N. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THIS 
AREA. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT ALSO COVERS THE AREA OFF OF THE W 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT 
RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
FETS