000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N95W 11N108W 9N115W 13N128W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 129W AND 137W.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 99W N OF 5N INTO MEXICO IS MOVING W 
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 95.5W AND 100W CONTINUING 
OFFSHORE ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WAVE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT DOMINATES THE FLOW 
OVER THE N PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
LOCATED ALONG 136W AND IS DIGGING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE 
RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 122W AND CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WELL 
BEYOND 32N. BROKEN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOCATED W OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS TO 130W N OF ABOUT 25N. A SHARP TROUGH AXIS IS 
LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO ALONG 108W N OF 20N. 

S OF 18N...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT IS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA FROM 
8N TO 18N W OF 110W WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 16N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THIS AREA. BROAD 
RIDGING ALOFT ALSO COVERS THE AREA OFF OF THE W COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CAB