000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010909
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 7N84W 11N98W 8N116W 9N124W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W...AND BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE 98W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND ALONG MEXICAN COAST NEAR 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EPAC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W. THIS 
WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF 18N ALLOWING THE FRESH 
TRADEWIND FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS IN THE GENERAL 
AREA FROM 12N TO 25N W OF 123W. 

BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 12N88W...ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 98W.

BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE BUILDING OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY 
RESULTING IN INCREASING GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 
COATZACOALCOS...MMMT AND IXTEPEC...MMIT SHOW SUSTAINED 20 KT 
WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE AS THE 
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE N.

A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SE PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN SLY CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS AND SWELL GENERALLY S OF 
5N BETWEEN 99W AND 129W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN