000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N100W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 77W TO 103W.


TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE 97W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM 
OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH  FROM NW MEWXICO TO 16N110W IS NEAR STATIONARY 
BORDERED BY TWO STRONG ANTICYCLONES.STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
ARE N OF 20N W OF THE TROUGH. WINDSPEED EXCEED 80 KT OVER MOST 
AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL W OF 120W. UPPER MOISTURE 
INCREASES ELSEWHERE TO THE E. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DOMINATES THE SW PART OF THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE INCREASES 
DRAMATICALLY. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE E PART OF THE AREA 
AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

SURFACE...
NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE FORECAST OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
TORRES