000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301509
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 8N94W 12N129W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N77W 10N90W 7N108W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 
8N132W. 

TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 94W N OF 4N INTO MEXICO AND IS 
MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE N PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS 
BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...ALONG A JET AXIS STRETCHING 
FROM 24N140W TO BEYOND 32N125W. THE JET IS LOCATED AT THE 
SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE OREGON COAST SW TO NEAR HAWAII. WINDS ALOFT 
BECOME ANTICYCLONIC S OF ABOUT 22N TO NEAR 10N INDICATING A 
RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
15N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. 

E OF 110W...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS 
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND 
THE GLOBAL GFS MODEL. NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE 
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS.

$$
CAB