000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N78W 8N87W 7N106W 12N127W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 7N78W 
TO 7N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
107W AND 115W.

TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N127W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. 
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

  
...DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N124W TO 21N118W 
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
15N134W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 8N106W. WEAK SURFACE 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
12N127W PERSISTS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TRADES CONTINUE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N.

OBSERVATIONS FROM MMIT SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS IN 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN 
THIS AREA PROBABLY WILL PERSIST AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM 
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOOKING FURTHER 
AHEAD...RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGH THE GAP TO 
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY. 

S OF 10N...THE MODERATE SLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS AND SWELL WILL 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUN MAINLY 
BETWEEN 108W AND 123W AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE PACIFIC. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN