000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 11N112W 12N123W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 106W-117W AND 122W-130W. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 140W-147W.

TROPICAL WAVES/LOW PRESSURE...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N121W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE N AND W OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CENTER...BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS...THE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED 
AND HAS BEEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST 
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM WEAK OR EVEN DISSIPATE IT 
LATER THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND AS IT GENERALLY MOVES W WITH THE 
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
  
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA 
HAS BEEN MOVING NE NOW LOCATED NEAR 33N134W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED S OF 
THE BAJA NEAR 21N110W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 
16N123W. ANOTHER LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N141W WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 14N130W. A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 
WEAKNESS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE RIDGES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE IS LOCKED IN THE RIDGES WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE S 
SIDE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ FOR MORE 
DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING 
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 11N101W...PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N127W. THE 
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE 1010 MB LOW 
DISCUSSED ABOVE IS PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADES THAT WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALSO 
DEVELOPED ALONG 112W FROM 15N-23N AND IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS 
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 111W-115W. N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST ARE NEAR 20 KT DUE TO THE 
TIGHTENED GRADIENT NEAR THE TAIL SURGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
AND HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD.

$$
CANGIALOSI