000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270855
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N96W 14N113W 
9N129W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-210 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 116W...BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. 

TROPICAL WAVES/LOW PRESSURE...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N119W MOVING W 5-10 KT. STRONG SE 
SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW ON THE E OF THE CONVECTION. CIRCULATION 
APPEARS VERY BROAD AND WEAK AND MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF 
DISSIPATING. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE WITHIN 240 NM ON THE NW SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE LOW CENTER.
  
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N134W CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TO 
THE NE. TRAILING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS GENERALLY ALONG 129W TO 18N. 
THE TROUGH BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ON MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N 
106W...AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE W OF 140W. CONVECTION AROUND THE 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N119W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES W AND AWAY FROM FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND THE RIDGE 
AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. 
NONETHELESS...FRESH NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

DIVERGENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

FURTHER E...UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR 
NEAR 10N99W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE FORMING BENEATH THIS 
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

S OF 10N...LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW PERSISTS 
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO LARGE SW SWELL.

$$
CHRISTENSEN