000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262048
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 8N90W 11N110W 10N120W 9N130W
8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 132W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 104W-106W AND 117W-119W.

TROPICAL WAVES/LOW PRESSURE...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N116W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE 
S SIDE OF AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WHICH IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N116.5W 14N119W
12.5N121W. LITTLE ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTICED WITH THIS
LOW OVER THE PAST 18-24 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO BE UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR.
  
...DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXETNDS NE-SW FROM A 
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
35N125W SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N129W AND TO A MORE PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING EAST 15-20 KT NEAR 
29N139W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN MOST LOW IS MAINLY
NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 480 NM EAST OF THE LOW...AND IS LIFTING N
OF THE AREA WITH TIME. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LIES TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 
22N106W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 13N125W. 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 12N145W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE LOW NEAR 29N139W THROUGH 19N131W TO 14N129W. A SMALL 
MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT
IS NEAR 12N96W. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOTED EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES IS ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO EXIST ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF
96W.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE REGION IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. 
AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THIS SAME RIDGE
FROM 17N113W TO 13N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 105W-113W.

AT THE SURFACE...N-NE 20 KT WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN ON SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING AS A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
SOUTHEAST MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT WITHIN ABOUT 24 HRS THEN DIMINISH WITHIN 36-48 HRS AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SOUTH OF 10N...SE-S WINDS OF 20 KT 
CONTINUE WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN SLY SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD 
DIMINISH IN 36-48 HRS. 

A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N124W WITH A RIDGE SOUTHEAST
TO 23N112W. GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH 
OF 19N...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN FOUND ELSEWHERE.

$$
AGUIRRE