000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 12N109W 10N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 98W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS ALSO 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-136W.

TROPICAL WAVES/LOW PRESSURE...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N115W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH IS MOST ORGANIZED IN A BANDED FEATURE 
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 115W-120W. OVERALL...THIS LOW HAS CHANGED 
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND APPEARS TO 
STILL BE FEELING EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR.
  
...DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
COASTLINE TO A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NEAR 29N138W. SOME 
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER LOW...BUT 
LITTLE...IF ANY...IS DEEP IN NATURE. OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY STABLE 
CONDITIONS EXIST BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE 
OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 22N105W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO NEAR 
15N125W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 11N145W. A SLIGHT MID-UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS EXISTS 
BETWEEN THESE MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGHS. A WEAKENING 40-60 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JET LIES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 11N96W. 
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS FEATURE MAY BE A CONTRIBUTING 
FACTOR IN THE LIMITED CONVECTION MOST EVERYWHERE ALONG THE WRN 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE REGION IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER WRN MEXICO IS 
AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC LOW. SE WINDS TO 20 
KT ARE OCCURRING E OF THE LOW. THIS LOW WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED 
SW SHEAR AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONES AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING DOES 
NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST 
ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 104W-112W.

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH NLY GAP WINDS PERSIST THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DIMINISH AS 
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. S OF 10N...MODERATE TO 
FRESH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW CONTINUES ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 
SWELL...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 92W AND 130W. 

$$
CANGIALOSI