000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 7N94W 9N103W 9N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
117W. 

TROPICAL WAVES/LOW PRESSURE...
1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N115W IS MOVING W 10 KT. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF 
DEEP CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH  DIGGING 
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EWD THROUGH THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA. 
SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE 
NEAR 29N140W...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS BENEATH 
THE UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE BENEATH THE 
TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED 
TO THE N OF THE AREA. 

FURTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS W ALONG 
21N. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS AIDING 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LOW CENTERED AT 14N115W. THE LOW 
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SW SHEAR AS IT MOVES W BETWEEN THE 
UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...AND IS NOT EXPECTED 
TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...EXPECT FRESH ELY 
WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE N OF THIS LOW AS IT 
MOVES ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE.

MODERATE TO FRESH NLY GAP WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD 
FRONT TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E.

WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS HINT AT A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 92W. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS TROUGH MAY 
BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN THE LIMITED CONVECTION MOST 
EVERYWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THIS MORNING.

S OF 10N...MODERATE TO FRESH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW CONTINUES 
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE SWELL...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 92W AND 130W.

   
$$
CHRISTENSEN