000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 7N100W 10N120W 9N129W 8N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 
107W-111W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 113W-117W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-128W.

TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER NEAR 34N126W. THIS LOW IS 
EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY LITTLE IF 
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR IT. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES 
TO THE SW OF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
TO NEAR 21N115W. ANOTHER NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 15N128W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH 
CENTERS. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE REGION IS A FEW HUNDRED 
MILES TO THE S AND SW OF THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA WHERE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 110W-114W AND OFF 
THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 96W-106W. THIS 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TRIGGERED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR ON 
THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN IS QUIET. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS RATHER WEAK BECAUSE OF THE 
BROAD 1013 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N129W. DUE TO THE WEAK PRES 
GRAD...TRADES ARE NOT VERY STRONG. THE ONLY AREAS OF MODERATE TO 
HIGH WINDS IS FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 120W WHERE THERE ARE NE 
TRADES TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 6N W OF 100W 
ARE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL 8 TO 10 FT. IN THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE REGION...THE TAIL END OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT 
EXTENDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN SIERRA MADRE. HIGH PRES IS 
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRAD 
PRODUCING WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN MEXICO AND 
THE NW GULF. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS 
SWD INCREASING THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER 
TODAY.   

$$
CANGIALOSI