000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N78W  5N90W  11N118W 10N132W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 98W TO 104W AND E OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 130W. 

TROPICAL LOW...
LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 16N107W DRIFTING W.  GOOD CIRCULATION 
ACCOMPANIES LOW PRES BUT CONVECTION VERY LIMITED TO SMALL BURST 
ON SRN QUADRANT.  UPPER-LEVEL SHEARING EASTERLY WIND CURTAILS 
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 32N126W DRIFTING NE 
HAS ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND TO 20N140W.  SWATH OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS.  TROUGH IS PREVENTED FROM FURTHER SRN INTRUSION BY WELL 
ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 9N140W TO ANTICYCLONIC 
CENTER AT 15N126W THEN TO SECOND CENTER AT 26N99W.  WEAK TROUGH 
S OF 16N ALONG 115W DENTS RIDGE ON SRN PERIPHERY.  E PAC BASIN 
REMAINS VERY MOIST UNDER RIDGE BUT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION 
OBSERVED ALONG ITCZ OR WITHIN BASIN...NOT EVEN WITH WELL DEFINED 
LOW PRES AS NOTED ABOVE. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...1010 MB LOW PRES AT 32N127W DRIFTING W NOT 
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT FORECAST WATERS.  ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED WELL N OF AREA EXTENDS TO 15N120W PRODUCING MODERATE 
TRADES WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AS LOW PRES W DRIFT EASES GRADIENT.
MODERATE N SWELL MIGHT LINGER N OF 25N AFTER TRADES DIMINISH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW WIND AND LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING WATERS S OF 
10N W OF 100W SPREADING E TO 90W WITHIN 48 HRS.  

STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO TODAY LIKELY PRODUCE 
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 
48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES