000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N81W  10N97W  9N110W  12N126W 
7N137W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS E OF `130W.

TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 16N106W DRIFTING W.  LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 
24 HRS.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO HEALTHY CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 28N129W AND CONTINUE TO 17N130W WITH FAIRLY DRY 
AIRMASS WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS.  MOISTURE SWATH ALOFT PARALLELS 
AHEAD OF AXIS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT OUT OF REACH OF LOW PRES 
SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE.  LARGE WELL ANCHORED RIDGE CURTAILS 
FURTHER SRN EXTENSION OF TROUGH.  RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 11N140W TO SECOND GYRE AT 24N100W OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO...WELL DEFINED RIDGE THEN CONTINUES ACROSS GULF 
OF MEXICO INTO SW N ATLC.

SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ALSO ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM 
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA BUT UNDER VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR 
THAT IS ADVERSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...AS A MATTER 
OF FACT...MOST OF ITCZ SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
UNDER SUCH MOISTURE CONTENT.  NOT EVEN WELL FORMED LOW PRES AT 
16N106W IS ABLE TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ON THE SURFACE...PAC HIGH PRES 1033 MB RIDGE N OF AREA EXTENDS 
AS FAR AS 20N110W...DENTED ONLY BY LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE. 
N WIND ON E SIDE OF RIDGE HAS LONG ENOUGH FETCH TO BRING LARGE 
SWELLS INTO E PAC BASIN N OF 24N.  SWELLS ABATE WITHIN 48 HRS AS 
RIDGE DRIFT E CUTTING OFF LONG FETCH.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL S WIND REMAIN LIGHT BUT LARGE INCREASING SWELLS 
COULD REACH TO 10 FT DURING NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE ABATING.

$$
WALLY BARNES