000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N80W 9N97W 9N110W 12N125W 
6N135W 7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W 7N83W AND 
9N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 11N118W TO 13N127W TO 7N136W.

OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N94W TO 13N100W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 20N106W.

TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N107W IS DRIFTING W. CONVECTION OF THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US TONIGHT CONTINUES TO 
INFLUENCE THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED 
THE RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO AND IS PULLING THE CUTOFF LOW LOCATED 
NEAR 27N128W TO THE NE. ON THE SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS 
WEAK AND NE TRADES ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS A SURGE OF 
NLY WINDS MOVING S BETWEEN 125W AND 130W TO 28N TO 20 KT WITH 
NLY SWELL OF 9 TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH 
THERE ARE SIGNS OF SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND ELY 
WINDS COULD INCREASE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND MOVE W OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT E OF 130W. 
QUIKSCAT SHOWS SE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT S OF 8N BETWEEN 130W AND 
140W.

LATER DAY 1 THE WEAKENED MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO TRIES TO 
MAKE A COMEBACK AS IT EXTENDS WSW TO 16N130W. THE CUTOFF LOW 
ALOFT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NE TO NEAR 27N127W. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 NE TRADES REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE N OF 15N W OF 
130W. A WEAK LOW 1010 MB FORMS NEAR 32N124W AND MAINTAINS NLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT ON IT'S W SIDE THUS CONTINUING TO PUSH NLY SWELL 
OF 9 TO 11 FT SWD TO 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. NO INCREASE IN 
GAP WINDS AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE MOSTLY 15 KT S OF 
4N E OF 120W.

FOR DAY 2 WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US FINALLY 
MOVING EWD..THE OLD CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NE TO NEAR 
31N124W AND SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING.  THE OLD RIDGE OVER 
MEXICO AGAIN CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDING SW 
TO 15N130W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE WEAK LOW JUST N OF THE 
BORDER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WWD TO 32N128W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WEAKENS FURTHER AND TRADES ARE MOSTLY N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY NW 10 KT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
GAP WINDS W OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BUT STILL ONLY 15 KT. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 5N MOSTLY 15 KT. SLY SWELL TO 9 FT 
WILL CONTINUE S OF 5N BETWEEN 106W AND 130W. 

$$
RRG