000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...6N77W 11N101W 9N110W 9N126W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N82W 12N88W 9N96W AND 13N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N124W AND 8N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N135W TO 8N140W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N95W. TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N106W DRIFTING W. THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NEAR 17N109W AND IS WEAKENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO CENTERS NEAR 16N108W HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... THE STRONGEST FEATURE TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US EXTENDING S TO 27N OVER MEXICO. MOST OF THE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES IN THE LARGE TROUGH ARE MOVING PAST OUR REGION AND WILL HAVE NO AFFECT HERE. THE LARGE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO THE PAST FEW WEEKS. ONE SEGMENT CONTINUES NEAR 24N120W. A CUTOFF MID LEVEL WAS NEAR 26N132W. THE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONTAINS LITTLE MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WELL N OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW 16N106W CAN BE SEEN IN THE IR IMAGERY WITH A FEW BANDS OF LOW CLOUDS. THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION HAS MOVED FURTHER W TO NEAR 17N109W. THERE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN THE TWO BUT IT HAS BEEN DECREASING. THE PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 30N140W TO 15N115W WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 15N AND W OF 130W. SOME NLY SWELL TO 9 FT ENTERS THE REGION TONIGHT N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 5N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W ARE 15 TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. LATER DAY 1 AT MID LEVELS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY OVER NRN MEXICO AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SWD IN THE LARGE TROUGH. THIS WILL SHRINK THE ALREADY WEAKENED RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS NE TO NEAR 27N130W WITH MOVEMENT OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TO IT'S NE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND NE TRADES TO 20 KT ARE CONFINED TO A SMALLER AREA BETWEEN 16N AND 22N W OF 130W. A NLY 20 KT WIND DEVELOPS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 5N BETWEEN 95W TO 130W ARE MOSTLY 15 KT WITH S SWELL TO 8 FT. FOR DAY 2 THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE FLOW OVER NRN MEXICO AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE EWD THROUGH THE LARGE TROUGH. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO WSW TO 15N140W. THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES MOVING NE GRADUALLY MOVING FASTER AS IT NEARS THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES IT'S WEAKENING TREND AND NE TRADES DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 33N124W WILL KEEP A NLY FLOW ALONG 130W OF 15 KT WITH NLY SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY WINDS W OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC/CARIB STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 5N CHANGE LITTLE AND ARE MOSTLY 15 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. $$ RRG