000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N76W 11N89W 14N95W 11N110W 
7N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N TO 8N W OF 
82W...FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 150 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N130W TO 9N138W MOVING NW 10 TO 12 KT. 

TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N106W IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE W...EXPOSING DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. 

A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM IS 
LOCATED NEAR 24N112W OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA...MOVING S 
10 KT. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 26N133W. 
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION N OF 15N 
AND W OF 115W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE STRATO CUMULUS 
FIELD N OF 122N UNDER DRY SUBSIDENT AIR. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT 
OUT TO THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS W 
OVER MEXICO. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST S OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N 
TO 23N W OF 125W...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...NLY SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS N OF 21N.

ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COASTS...NEAR AFOREMENTIONED LOW NEAR 16N105W...AND NEAR AN 
EMERGING BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 13N95W. MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N. GFS INITIALIZES THIS 
FEATURE A LITTLE TOO FAR E NEAR 92W BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP IT MUCH 
AS IT MOVES W AT 10 KT. 

LARGE CLUSTER OF RESIDUAL TSTMS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST E OF 82W 
AND IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

SOUTH OF ITCZ...MODERATE TO FRESH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW ALONG 
WITH S TO SLY SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN