000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201509
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 16N101W 8N106W 9N128W 6N140W. 
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N 
BETWEEN 108W-120W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 
136W-141W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS ALONG 131W/132W 
FROM 4N-17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. RATHER BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS LIE TO THE E OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 126W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N128W CONTINUING TO 22N136W. DRY 
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. THIS DRY AIR 
ALONG WITH RATHER TYPICAL SURFACE RIDGING IN THIS REGION IS 
PRODUCING QUIET WEATHER W OF 120W. 

A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 
22N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND FARTHER N OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 105W-109W AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 
105W-108W. CONVECTION IS MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1010 MB SFC 
LOW NEAR 16N104W. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM ARE 
LOCATED NEAR 24N114W. THIS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS DRIFTING 
NORTHWARD ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AND HIGH PRES TO THE WEST IS ENHANCING NE TRADES W 
OF LINE FROM 30N125W TO 10N140W. 

SOUTH OF ITCZ CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY SW SWELL IS 
PRODUCING SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

FARTHER WEST...A 1011 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 13N123W IS PRODUCING 
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY AS IT TRACKS 
WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. 

$$
JC/EC