000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191455
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 98W IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY 
EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN COAST SWD TO THE ITCZ. HOWEVER... 
QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A WEAK 1008 MB IS 
CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N95W MOVING NW 5 
KT...POSSIBLY THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UNFORTUNATELY 
THE PATTERN OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC IS COMPLEX...AND THE EXACT 
LOCATION OF TROPICAL WAVES IS DIFFICULT TO DEDUCE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 93W-97W. OTHER 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ...AND SW OF ACAPULCO ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TROPICAL SQUALL LINE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 11N94W 7N110W 11N122W 7N130W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 
92W-100W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 107W-120W...AND 121W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRUSHING ACROSS THE N PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
COAST SW TO 23N131W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED 
JUST N OF 30N AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDS IN W OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF 
MAZATLAN MEXICO...IRONICALLY VERY NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT OF 
HURRICANE LANE A FEW DAYS AGO...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW 
TO 20N123W. THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. MIRIAM...1010 MB...IS 
LOCATED UNDER THIS RIDGE ABOUT 235 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N114W. ISOLATED TSTM CELLS HAVE STILL 
BEEN POPPING WITHIN 175 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANT LOW...BUT 
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER N INTO COOLER WATERS. S OF 
20N...THE FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY E/NELY WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP 
CONVECTION EVEN NEAR THE ITCZ.

OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...A LARGE MONSOON-TYPE GYRE EXTENDS E OF 
110W WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SOMEWHAT SURROUNDING THE 1008 
MB LOW S OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC NEAR 12N95W. A TROPICAL 
SQUALL LINE IS PROPAGATING WWD 15-20 KT OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
SW OF ACAPULCO...AND IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 100W-105W. DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE 
FAR E PACIFIC...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN CUT OFF A LITTLE BY AN 
EARLY SEASON LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS PLUNGED SWD INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
BERG