000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE LANE IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 107.4W...ABOUT 27 NM N NW OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 130 NM N NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO 17/0300 UTC MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23N108W 24N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N108W 24N107W. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE W CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF W CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 114.4W...OR 370 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 17/0300 UTC MOVING N NE OR 025 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 10-12 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW TSTMS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 5N HAS MOVED W 10 KT PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE E PAC AND CONTINUING N AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG THE AXIS ON THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 87W AND 91W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N81W 9N90W 6N99W 15N115W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N80W 7N111W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 31N136W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT 600 NM DIAMETER...EXTENDING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 22N123W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST THROUGH 17N140W. TO THE N OF THIS RIDGE...A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN N AMERICA EXTENDS S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N112W TO A BASE AT 27N108W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N104W 25N114W AND IS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 11N140W 20N117W 27N108W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM LANE AND MIRIAM IS ADVECTED SW...TO THE W OF A DRY AIR BOUNDARY LINE ALONG 25N99W 10N102W AND TO THE SW OF THE DRY AIR DESCRIBED ABOVE. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT S OF 8N ALONG 96W... SHIFTING W WITH TIME. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS E OF 100W EXTENDING NW FROM S AMERICA. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N130W 24N113W. $$ NELSON