000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE LANE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 107.2W...OR ABOUT 27 NM S SE OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 84 NM N NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 16/2100 UTC MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT...A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE W CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF W CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W...OR 375 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 16/2100 UTC MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 34 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF OF CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 10-12 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY A SINGLE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE PANAMA COAST AT 80.5W. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N HAS MOVED W 10 KT PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE E PAC AND CONTINUING N ALONG THE AXIS THE THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 11N85W 6N97W 15N114W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N80W 9N88W 4N104W 13N107W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 31N136W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT 600 NM DIAMETER...EXTENDING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 21N124W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 17N137W. TO THE N OF THIS RIDGE...A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN N AMERICA EXTENDS S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N116W TO A BASE AT 18N111W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N107W 18N137W AND IS SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 12N140W 20N116W 27N108W. THE ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LANE IS AT 24N105W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 18N118W...ACROSS TROPICAL STROM MIRIAM. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM LANE AND MIRIAM IS ADVECTED SW...TO THE W OF A DRY AIR BOUNDARY LINE ALONG 25N99W 10N104W AND TO THE SW OF THE DRY AIR DESCRIBED ABOVE. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT S OF 8N ALONG 95W...AND APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING W WITH TIME. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS E OF 100W EXTENDING NW FROM S AMERICA. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N130W 24N113W. $$ NELSON