000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161516 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE LANE CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 107.1W...OR 45 NM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND 80 NM S OF CULIACAN MEXICO...AT 16/1500 UTC MOVING N 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT...MAKING LANE A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE LANE HAS A VERY SMALL 10 NM WIDE EYE WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE CENTER. IN FACT...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATES THAT LANE HAS A DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE AT THE MOMENT AND THE OUTER EYEWALL IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COASTLINE OF SINALOA STATE JUST N OF MAZATLAN. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SINALOA LATER TODAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS (UP TO 15-26 INCHES). NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE IN SPIRAL BANDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM S AND 120 NM N SEMICIRCLES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 114.2W...OR 385 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 16/1500 UTC MOVING NE 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. 14-E IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 NM SW OF HURRICANE LANE...AND APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ITS STRONG OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHOSE INTENSITY HAS BEEN WANING JUST A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 113W-117W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST MOVED OFF THE W COLOMBIAN COAST ALONG 78W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW TSTMS ARE FORMING OVER PANAMA AND ABOUT 75 NM OFF THE SRN COAST. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WRN HONDURAS AND JUST W OF COSTA RICA ALONG 86W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NWD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ REACHING TO ALONG THE COSTA RICAN COASTLINE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 83W-86W MOVING W AWAY FROM THE COAST. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 7N96W 13N115W 8N134W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-106W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-130W AND W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS SITUATED OFF THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...COURTESY OF A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N139W. THIS IS CAUSING A STRENGTHENED SUBTROPICAL JET WHOSE AXIS RUNS FROM 27N140W ENE TOWARDS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SRN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY...PARTLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY CONVERGENCE SW OF THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH NEAR 21N125W. THIS HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUSHED THE ITCZ WELL S OF 8N W OF 120W. A MONSOON-TYPE TROUGH...OR A NWD EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ...HAS SET UP CAMP W OF THE MEXICAN COAST AND CONTAINS BOTH HURRICANE LANE AND NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN UNINHIBITED LOW-LEVEL CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WHICH RUNS FROM 8N130W DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEWD TO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND IS FEEDING BOTH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS THE SW/W FACING SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS IN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LANE. OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER HURRICANE LANE IS CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM MEXICO SW INTO THE TROPICS. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 94W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW. DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS LIMITING SHOWERS/CLOUDS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND 103W...ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES FROM THE E MAY CHANGE THIS WITHIN THE COMING DAYS. $$ BERG