000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160934 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 1005 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE LANE IS NEAR 22.7N 107.0W 960 MB AT 16/0900 UTC MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. THE EYE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND OBSCURRED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS. REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 17N116W 1003 MB MOVING NE 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W N OF 5N MOVING W AT 12 KT. A FLAIR UP OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COSTA RICAN COAST WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 10N80W 5N93W 12N117W 6N135W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N82W 5N90W 6N94W 6N99W 6N102W AND 10N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N120W TO 7N135W TO 10N140W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE WRN US BARELY BRUSHES THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 120W. HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THE PAST 24 HRS. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEAKLY EXTENDS OVER THE REGION TO 15N140W. A CLOSED MID LEVEL VORTEX IS CENTERED NEAR 28N138W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HRCN LANE IS THE BIG STORY AS IT MOVES NNW AT 10 KT. LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE WRN PERIMETER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A NEW DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 17N116W IS MOVING NE SLOWLY AND SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK TONIGHT WITH NE TRADES 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN NLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS LANE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST BETWEEN 110 AND 125W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. LATER DAY 1 THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN US CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NE AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND HEIGHTS ARE SLOWLY RISING N OF 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES UNCHANGED OVER MEXICO WITH THE WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER THE REGION. THE CUTOFF LOW AT MID LEVELS MOVES TO NEAR 28N136W CAUGHT S OF A WEAK HIGH AT MID LEVELS NEAR 35N135W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HRCN LANE CONTINUES NWD UP THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND THE NEW DISTURBANCE MOVES NE TO NEAR 18N114W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME WITH NE TRADES 15 TO 20 KT N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA COAST. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN UNCHANGED. FOR DAY 2 IN THE MID LEVELS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO SOME BUT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE REGION N OF 10N. THE CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR 27N132W GENERALLY CAUGHT IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 HRCN LANE MOVES ALONG THE WRN MEXICAN COAST WHILE THE NEW DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE LOWER BAJA COAST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE AND NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE AS HRCN LANE MOVES NWD WITH INCREASING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN UNCHANGED. $$ RRG