000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151634
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1605 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM LANE CENTER AT 1500 UTC NEAR 19.7N 106.2W MOVING 
NW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 GUSTS TO 75 KT. 
REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED 
TO BECOME HURRICANE TONIGHT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IN OUTER RAINBANDS FROM 140 NM TO 300 NM N AND 
S OF CENTER.  LANE HEADS INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA THEN INLAND NW 
MEXICO.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N82W 7N91W 14N102W 15N114W 13N123W 8N131W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N78W 7N79W 5N87W 5N93W 
13N120W 8N130W AND 8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF 15N115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 29N143W UNABLE TO BUDGE BROAD AND WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 16N138W AT ALL.  RIDGE EXTENDS 
TO 20N120W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AT UPPER LEVELS.  

WEAK TROUGH DENTS RIDGE 32N114W TO 19N116W EXTENDING DRY AIR 
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA JUST N OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.  WELL 
DEFINED ANTICYCLONE OVER T.S. LANE SPREADS MOISTURE ALOFT 
THROUGH MEXICO AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO.  

ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE KEEPING ITCZ 
FAIRLY ACTIVE ALTHOUGH NOT MANY UPLIFTING SURFACE FEATURES 
AVAILABLE FOR MORE ACTION.  

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD ON UPPER PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...TRADES REMAIN LESS THAN NORMAL AND WIND AND 
SWELLS CROSSING EQUATOR INTO SRN SIDE OF ITCZ.  PACIFIC RIDGE 
NOT STRENGTHENING BUT DRIFTING SE INCREASING PRES OVER E PAC 
BASIN W OF 120W.

$$
WALLY BARNES