000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1605 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE AT 15/0900 UTC WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.7N 106.2W MOVING NW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 60 KT AND GUSTS TO 75 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LANE 
IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND IS ALMOST A 
HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LANE AROUND 18Z. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK 
BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 
HR.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 12N100W 13N120W 8N130W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 160 NM OF 15N115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF FORECAST AREA 
PRODUCING SW WINDS OVER THE NW QUADRANT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF U.S. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS 
OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES THERE IS 
A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER 
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 
15N134W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PERSIST N OF 20N. 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE LOCATED YESTERDAY NEAR 13N122W OR ABOUT 1100 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE 
DIMINISHED. A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS 
DEVELOPED FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS POORLY 
ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO 
OCCUR.

15-20 KT WINDS AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS FLOW S OF 
10N WEST OF 110W. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS N 
OF THE AREA AND PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 
15N-22N WEST OF 120W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME 
SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COLD 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
GR