000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1005 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE AT 15/0900 UTC WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.1N 106.0W MOVING NW AT 11 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 55 KT AND GUSTS TO 65 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY AND IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN OUTER RAINBANDS FROM 
140 NM TO 300 NM N AND S OF THE CENTER. LANE IS MOVING AROUND 
THE SW PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE NORTHWEST...THREATENING THE BAJA PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N82W 7N91W 14N102W 15N114W 13N123W 8N131W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N78W 7N79W 5N87W 5N93W 
13N120W 8N130W AND 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF 15N115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 130W TO 27N. A PORTION OF 
THE TROUGH EXTENDS BACK OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
REGION. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT T.S. LANE IS MOVING NW AROUND THE WRN EDGE OF 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. A WEAK TRPL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ON THE ITCZ 
NEAR 15N122W IS DRIFTING W. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 110W AND 130W TO 20 KT 
WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK OVER THE 
NW PORTION OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NE TRADES 10 TO 15 KT AND 
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ON THE NRN BORDER 
AND TO THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM 
BAJA TO 18N140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 T.S. LANE IS 
EXPECTED TO GAIN HRCN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER BAJA 
PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS..CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS OR 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE.

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO BEGIN LIFTING NE AWAY 
FROM THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO CHANGES LITTLE. 
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR HRCN LANE TO TRACK NNW ALONG THE E 
SIDE OF THE LOWER BAJA ON A SIMILAR TRACK OF HRCN JOHN. SOME 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN GAP WINDS W OF HONDURAS TO 15 KT OTHERWISE 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF 
STRENGTHENING WITH WINDS TO 20 KT E OF 125W N OF 25N. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 15 KT S OF 5N W OF 110W.

$$
RRG