000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
2205 UTC THU SEP 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE AT 14/2100 UTC WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.9N 105.2W MOVING WNW AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 50 KT AND GUSTS TO 60 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. 
LANE IS MOVING AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH...THREATENING THE BAJA PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N83W 10N90W 16N105W 16N115W 10N128W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 80W AND 
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 100 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF 
FORECAST AREA PRODUCING SW WINDS OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SOUTH OF 
THE TROUGH THERE IS A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO BEYOND 15N140W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS PRESENT N OF 20N. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE AND GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 12N121W IS QUASI-STATIONARY...EMBEDDED IN AN 
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FROM 11N-15N AND BETWEEN 120W-125. SOME 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.

15-20 KT WINDS AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS FLOW S OF 
10N WEST OF 95W. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS N OF 
THE AREA AND PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 15N-22N 
WEST OF 120W. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
MUNDELL