000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1605 UTC THU SEP 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE AT 14/0900 UTC WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5N 104.3W MOVING WNW AT 11 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 40 KT AND GUSTS TO 50 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE 
CENTER FROM 14N-19W BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTER. LANE IS MOVING 
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO MENTIONED BELOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK 
INDICATES AN INCREASED THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N80W 13N99W 14N110W 11N125 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 3N AND E OF 91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 
127W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF 
THE AXIS WEST OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME NW CORNER OF FORECAST AREA 
PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SOUTH OF THE 
TROUGH THERE IS A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO BEYOND 15N140W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR N OF 20N. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS 
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

A 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N121W IS QUASI-STATIONARY...EMBEDDED 
IN AN ACTIVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FROM 11N-15N AND BETWEEN 120W-125. SOME 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.

15-20 KT WINDS AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS FLOW S OF 
10N WEST OF 95W. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS N OF 
THE AREA AND PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 15N-22N 
WEST OF 120W. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
GR