000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141009
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1005 UTC THU SEP 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE AT 14/0900 UTC WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9N 102.9W MOVING WNW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 35 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N80W 16N102W 12N121W 8N131W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 3N AND E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 8N139W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WESTERLIES ARE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH ALONG 110W N OF 27N MOVING E AND A LARGER TROUGH DROPPING 
SE ALONG 126W AT 30N. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W 
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT W OF 115W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR 17N103W MOVING WNW AND 
APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL BECOME T.S. 
LANE. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR 12N122W AND WAS 
MOVING SLOWLY WNW. THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO GET BETTER 
ORGANIZED. THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA N OF 12N AND 
W OF 110W WITH NE TRADES 15 TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS WERE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. SLY SWELL TO 
8 FT WAS CROSSING THE EQUATOR W OF 110W TO NEAR 8N. 

LATER DAY 1 WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 110W LIFTS NE THE 
SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG 126W MOVES SLOWLY SE TO NEAR 120W ALONG 
28N. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN W OF 130W AND E OF 110W WITH A 
WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN FROM 115W TO 130W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 
1 T.S. LANE SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
THE GFS MODEL LIKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG 122W AND 
WANTS TO DEVELOP IT. NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS DO GAP 
WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE SOME BETWEEN 110W AND 
125W IF THE DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS. SLY SWELL IN THIS AREA 
SHOULD BE 8 TO 10 FT.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE TROUGH ALONG 126W BECOMING A 
MAJOR UPPER TROUGH ALONG 120W BUT REMAINING N OF 28N. OTHERWISE 
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS W OF 130W AND THE SECOND RIDGE E 
OF 120W SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. THE T.D. 13 WILL BE 
EMBEDDED IN THIS RIDGE WHILE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WORKS IT'S 
WAY IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. ON THE SURACE DAY 2 
T.D. 13 IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NW 
JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE TROPICAL DISTURANCE IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE SLOWLY NW WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH NE TRADES 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORICAL SLY WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W WITH SLY SWELL TO 9 FT.

$$
RRG