000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
0405 UTC THU SEP 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E AT 14/0300 UTC WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.4W MOVING WNW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT AND GUSTS TO 40 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
16N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N80W 7N86W 15N103W 16N113W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME NW CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. MID 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS 25N FROM MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 24N132W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR N OF 20N. 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

A 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N121W IS QUASI-STATIONARY...EMBEDDED 
IN AN ACTIVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS 
DECREASED THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS GOOD.

15-20 KT WINDS AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS FLOW S OF 
10N WEST OF 95W IS ENHANCING SEA HEIGHTS SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM AROUND 10N130W TO 
T.D. 13-E. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS N OF THE 
AREA AND PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 15N-22N 
WEST OF 120W. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
MUNDELL