000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
2205 UTC WED SEP 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E AT 13/2100 UTC WAS 
LOCATED ABOUT 110 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO NEAR 16.0N 101.5W MOVING NW 
AT 10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT AND GUSTS TO 40 
KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/ 
WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED NW OF THE CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF 18N104.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N80W 8N87W 15N100W 14N117W 10N126W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION 200 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND BETWEEN 118W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME NW CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. MID 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS 25N FROM MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 24N132W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR N OF 20N. 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 12N118W MOVING SLOWLY W WITH WELL DEFINED 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW 
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IN A DIURNAL LULL PERIOD.

15-20 KT WINDS AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS FLOW S OF 
10N WEST OF 95W IS ENHANCING SEA HEIGHTS SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM AROUND 10N130W TO 
T.D. 13-E. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS N OF THE 
AREA AND PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 15N-22N 
WEST OF 120W. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
MUNDELL