000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130858
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1005 UTC WED SEP 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 102W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 12N94W 13N114W 8N131W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 250 NM OF AXIS E OF 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT THE EDGE OF NW CORNER OF FORECAST AREA 
FINDING STRONG RESISTANCE IN HEALTHY BROAD WELL ANCHORED 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N125W BLOCKING FURTHER EWD ENCROACHMENT.  
CYCLONIC VORTEX PULLING TROUGH HAS LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO HEAD NE 
STALLING TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING IT.  

ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N125W EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM BEYOND 
16N140W TO BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 28N114W. CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER 
ARIZONA HAS WEAK TROUGH ALONG 113W AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
SPLITTING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND BRINGING 
PATCH OF DRY AIR MASS TO AN OTHERWISE VERY MOIST E PAC.

SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HEALTHY UPLIFT 
IN LOW PRES CENTERS MENTIONED BELOW.   

LOW PRES...1009 MB...AT 14N99W FORECASTED BY GFDL TO HUG MEXICAN 
COAST ON A NW TRACK AND INTENSIFY AS UPPER CONDITIONS BECOMING 
MORE FAVORABLE WITH WLY DRIFT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST FROM 99W-103W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N FROM 96W-103W. 

A 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 12N117W MOVING W 10 KT WITH WELL DEFINED 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 117W-128W. 

LOW PRES 1010 MB...REMNANTS OF KRISTY...AT 10N140W DRIFT W. 
CONVECTION W OF 140W. 

$$
WALLACE