000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
1605 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 6N ALONG 100W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE FROM 
10N-15N BETWEEN 95W-100W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 12N95W 11N105W 9N118W 10N135W 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E 
OF 85W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 105W AND 100 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF OF AXIS FROM 129W TO 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION AREA 
BUT STRONG ANTICYCLONE E OF THE TROUGH IS BLOCKING ANY EWD 
MOVEMENT. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 21N128W. 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N102W COVERING CENTRAL MEXICO. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 15N140W THROUGH THE ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION TO 32N122W. SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN SW ARIZONA WITH TROUGH S 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ TO THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 
26N118W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND SE OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EQUATOR.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF KRISTY...IS LOCATED NEAR 
9N137W DRIFTING TO THE SW. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 136W-140W. ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW 
PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N118W MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW IS LIKELY 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL 
LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY S OF 9N BETWEEN 95W AND 140W IS IN THE 
15-20 KT RANGE. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS SLY FLOW TO CONTINUE 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE 
WINDS 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 
HOURS FROM 12N-17N W OF 120W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
31N135W SEWD TO 20N110 PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 
15N-24N WEST OF 120W.

$$
GR