000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT.  CYCLONIC SWIRL  
ALONG AXIS AT 11N BUT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY 
FAVORABLE...BUT IMPROVES AS AXIS DRIFTS W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 5N TO 19N MOVING W 15 KT.  BURST 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N ENHANCED BY 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 8N78W 7N83W 13N96W 11N110W 8N127W 11N135W 11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 
84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 
95W TO 118W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NW CORNER OF AREA HAVING A HARD 
TIME BUDGING AGAINST WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 
20N130W.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 
23N104W WITH WEAK TROUGH ALONG 114W BETWEEN BOTH CENTERS.  VERY 
DRY UPPER AIR N OF 20N FROM 110W TO 125W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
FROM REMNANTS OF KRISTY AND OTHER ITCZ CONVECTION SURGE NE OF 
WRN ANTICYCLONE. 

SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO ITCZ ALL 
THE WAY ACROSS E PAC...BUT CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO 
VICINITY OF TROPICAL WAVES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES AT 12N114W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB WELL NW OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 27N115W.  MODELS DEVELOP 1010 MB LOW 
PRES AT 11N116W AS WEAK UPPER SHEAR AND SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ENHANCE ITS INTENSIFYING. 

MODERATE TRADES REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC MEANS ALTHOUGH RIDGE BEGINS 
DISSIPATING WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

REMNANT OF KRISTY AT 11N135W 1011 MB.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SW FLOW 
S OF 9N FROM 85W TO 120W TO CONTINUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS.

$$
WALLY BARNES