000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT.  CYCLONIC SWIRL  
ALONG AXIS AT 11N BUT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY 
FAVORABLE...BUT IMPROVES AS AXIS DRIFTS W.  MINOR CONVECTION 
INLAND MEXICO ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 6N TO 19N MOVING W 15 KT.  BURST 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N ENHANCED BY 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 7N78W 7N84W 13N95W 11N117W 9N127W 11N135W 11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 
88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 
91W TO 127W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NW CORNER OF AREA HAVING A HARD 
TIME BUDGING AGAINST WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 
19N131W.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 
22N103W WITH WEAK TROUGH ALONG 115W BETWEEN BOTH CENTERS.  VERY 
DRY UPPER AIR N OF 20N FROM 110W TO 125W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
FROM REMNANTS OF KRISTY AND OTHER ITCZ CONVECTION SURGE NE OF 
WRN ANTICYCLONE. 

SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO ITCZ ALL 
THE WAY ACROSS E PAC...BUT CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO 
VICINITY OF TROPICAL WAVES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES AT 12N114W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB WELL NW OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 25N110W.  MODELS DEVELOP 1010 MB LOW 
PRES AT 12N114W AS WEAK UPPER SHEAR AND SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ENHANCE ITS INTENSIFYING. 

MODERATE TRADES REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC MEANS ALTHOUGH RIDGE BEGINS 
DISSIPATING WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

REMNANT OF KRISTY AT 11N135W 1010 MB.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SW FLOW 
S OF 9N FROM 85W TO 120W TO CONTINUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS.

$$
WALLY BARNES