000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC 
TURNING NOTED ALONG ITS AXIS AT 12N. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 95W AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 97W-102W. CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OVER 
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 6N TO NEAR 20N MOVING W AROUND 15 
KT. CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE NORTHERN 
END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 105W-107W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 7N78W 12N92W 12N102W 8N120W 11N140W. OUTSIDE THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE 
GULF OF PANAMA...WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
90W-100W AND EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 112W-118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
WHILE AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N130W. FARTHER 
EAST THERE IS ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N102W COVERING 
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-130W. UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY AND 
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 140W...IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 
150-170 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 22N132W 16N135W. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 11N115W...AND DRIFTING W WITH 
TIME. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 118W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 31N135W 22N117W. THE 
REMNANT LOW OF KRISTY IS NEAR 12N135W 1010 MB. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 129W WITH A WEAK LOW 
PRES IS ESTIMATED NEAR 12N115W AT 1007MB. THE GFS IS INDICATING 
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY S OF 9N BETWEEN 85W 
AND 120W IS QUITE STRONG...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE GFS 
FORECASTS THIS SLY FLOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE WINDS 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS FROM 12N-17N W OF 120W.

$$
GR