000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110950 TWDEP TAXIS 7N78W 12N92W 12N106W 7N120W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N77W 10N97W 10N125W.ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON SEP 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ALONG ITS AXIS AT 12N BUT CONVECTION DOES NOT CONCENTRATE IN PERSISTENT BANDS AS YET. CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 95W INDICATING A SLIGHT NE TILT TO THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT MAY BE ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION STILL DISSIPATING. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 8N TO NEAR 22N MOVING W 12 KT. CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER MEXICO UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVER WATER AT THE MOMENT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS 12N92W 12N106W 7N120W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N77W 10N97W 10N125W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NE PAC STEMMING FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 54N150W WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THE EASTERNMOST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 40N145W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE CUTTING OFF AT 32N138W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO BASE NEAR 15N147W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO AT 24N102W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 13N145W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AT 21N122W WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A SHARP CREST AT 31N126W. A BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N115W 30N131W SURROUNDED BY MODERATE DRY UPPER AIR ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 108W AND 140W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY AND ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 142W...IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N132W 14N142W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 10N115W...AND DRIFTING W WITH TIME. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 13N103W IS ALSO MOVING W WITH TIME. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CYCLONE...AND SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N102W...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 100W...ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W AND SHIFTING W. A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER S AMERICA NEAR 20S60W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 72W CRESTING OVER NICARAGUA AT 12N86W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ E OF 90W WITH THE UPPER LEVELS MOIST OVER THE E PAC FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 82W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N137W 22N114W. THE REMNANT LOW OF KRISTY IS NEAR 13.5N134W 1010 MB. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 98W WITH A WEAK LOW PRES IS ESTIMATED NEAR 13.5N122W AT 1008 MB AND ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W AT 1009 MB. THE GFS IS INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR 13.5N123W...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER E. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY S OF 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 85W IS QUITE STRONG...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS SLY FLOW TO CONTINUE...OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR 13.5N123W. THE GRADIENT NW OF THIS BROAD LOW PRES AND SW OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS 20 KT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 120W. $$ NELSON