000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 8N MOVING W 15 KT.  WEAK CYCLONIC 
TURNING NOTED N OF 12N WITH MINOR CONVECTION AND LITTLE OR NO 
APPARENT ORGANIZATION.  WHILE AREA REMAIN VERY MOIST...UPPER 
ENVIRON IS NOT ENTIRELY ADVERSE AND LIKELY TO BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE AS AXIS DRIFT W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 8N MOVING W 12 KT.  MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DIRECTLY 
UNDER WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.  
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITHIN BEYOND 36 HRS AND 
INTENSIFICATION CHANCES INCREASE. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS  9N83W  12N93W  11N114W  12N118W  10N124W  11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS
E OF 114W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N140W HAS DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
EXTEND SW APPROACHING E PAC BASIN BUT BLOCKING BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
LIKELY FORCE IT MORE NE.  ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 20N125W HAS 
RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 21N ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENT WITH 
SECOND CENTER AT 22N104W.  WEAK TROUGH ALOFT HALFWAY BETWEEN 
CENTERS ALONG 113W BRINGS ONLY DRY SLOT AMID OTHERWISE VERY 
MOIST AIR MASS...MAINLY S OF 20N.

SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE PROVIDES ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WHICH REMAIN OUT OF SYNCH WITH SURFACE UPLIFT 
AT THIS TIME.  WAVE MOVEMENTS COULD IMPROVE CHANCES AS BOTH 
WAVES MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS. 

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES FROM 15N TO 22N W OF 130W BECOME 
STRONGER AND EXTEND IN AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE NE OF AREA IS 
SQUEEZED E BY COLD FRONT UNDER DEEP LAYER TROUGH MENTIONED 
ABOVE.  

MODERATE S FLOW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS PERSIST S OF ITCZ. 

$$
WALLY BARNES