000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. MODEST 
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED N OF 11N. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION 
NOTED...MAINLY MODERATE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE GUATEMALAN 
COAST AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. MAINLY 
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY WITH 
MODERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INTERACTING THE NORTHERN 
EXTENT OF THE ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 9N98W 10N110W 13N119W 12N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 14.5N120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR 18N133W. 
RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT CYCLONIC TURNING WITH 
THIS FEATURE AND MORNING IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY HINT THIS IS 
FORMING A SURFACE LOW. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...BUT 
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF LESS 
SHEAR ALOFT.

FURTHER WEST...1008 MB LOW IS EVIDENT NEAR 13N120W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION UNDER SRN PERIPHERY OF 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF KRISTY EVIDENT 
NEAR 15N133W WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED. 

UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 19N140W. SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS DIGGING SE INTO THE TROUGH. THE 
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT AND AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
MEXICO BUILDS OVER THE EPAC FROM 18N TO 30N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS MAINTAIN SURFACE 1026 MB 
RIDGE N OF 25N W OF 130W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT 
FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 135W.

MODERATE SLY FLOW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS PERSIST S OF THE 
ITCZ. 

$$

CHRISTENSEN