000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG AXIS BUT LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION INDICATED. 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BECOMING LESS ADVERSE AS NE SHEAR DECREASES 
WITH THE AXIS DRIFTING W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. EMBEDDED WEAK 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION 
MAINLY S OF 10N WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LIGHT NE SHEAR IS 
MORE FAVORABLE.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 10N98W 8N105W 14N117W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS ENTIRE E PAC N OF 
20N WITH CENTERS NEAR 22N117W AND 22N104W. DRY AIR MASS UNDER 
RIDGE EXCEPT FOR SHORT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OVER 
WRN MEXICO. ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ MAINLY E OF 
105W WHERE UPPER PATTERN IS DIVERGENT.

AT THE SURFACE...REMNANTS OF KRISTY NEARLY STATIONARY AT 15N133W 
ENTRAINING STABLE AIRMASS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED SHORTLY.

WEAKENING BROAD 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF AREA WITH 
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 20N115W IS SUSTAINING MODERATE TRADES N OF 
15N W OF 130W. REMNANTS OF KRISTY ARE HELPING ENHANCE THE TRADE 
WINDS FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE RIDGE.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS S OF 10N FROM 95W TO 115W ARE AFFECTING 
TROPICAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 
ITCZ NEAR 12N115W WITHIN 12 TO 36 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL