000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT.  MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF AXIS BUT LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION 
NOTED. ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BECOMING LESS ADVERSE AS NE SHEAR 
DECREASES WITH AXIS DRIFTING W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 97W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT.  EMBEDDED 
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N.  BURST OF CONVECTION REMAIN 
S OF 10N WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES LIFT AND NE SHEAR IS 
LIGHTER. CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE AS UPPER ENVIRONMENT 
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 10N86W 11N102W 10N122W 12N133W 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 105W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS ENTIRE E PAC N OF 
20N WITH CENTERS AT 22N117W AND 22N104W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER 
RIDGE COVER EXCEPT BURST ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING OVER WRN 
MEXICO.  ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ MAINLY E OF 
105W WHERE UPPER PATTERN IS DIVERGENT.   

AT THE SURFACE...REMNANTS OF KRISTY AT 15N133W DRIFTING W INTO 
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PUT AN 
END TO ITS AGONY.  VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED.  

WEAKENING BROAD 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF AREA WITH 
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 20N115W STILL MAINTAINS MODERATE TRADES N OF 
15N W OF 130W.  WHILE REMNANTS OF KRISTY PER SE ARE A NON-ISSUE 
IN FORECAST...ITS TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT AGAINST RIDGE ENHANCES 
TRADES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS S OF 10N FROM 95W TO 120W AFFECTING 
TROPICAL WATERS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES