000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 9 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 2N MOVING W 15 KT.  MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION NOR CIRCULATION NOTED.
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BECOMING LESS ADVERSE AS NE SHEAR DECREASES 
WITH AXIS DRIFTING W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 96W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT.  EMBEDDED 
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 11N.  BURST OF CONVECTION S OF 
9N WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES LIFT AND NE SHEAR IS LIGHTER. 
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INCREASE AS UPPER ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 10N85W 11N120W 12N132W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
112W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS ENTIRE E PAC N OF 
20N WITH CENTERS AT 21N117W AND 22N102W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER 
RIDGE COVER EXCEPT BURST ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO.  ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...LARGE SWATH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ 
MAINLY E OF 100W WHERE UPPER PATTERN IS DIVERGENT.   

AT THE SURFACE...REMNANTS OF KRISTY AT 15N133W DRIFTING W INTO 
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PUT AN 
END TO ITS AGONY.  VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED.  

BROAD 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF AREA WITH RIDGE EXTEND 
SE TO 20N115W WILL KEEP STRONG TRADES N OF 15N W OF 130W.  WHILE 
REMNANTS OF KRISTY PER SE ARE A NON-ISSUE IN FORECAST...ITS 
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ENHANCES TRADES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS S OF 10N FROM 95W TO 120W AFFECTING 
TROPICAL WATERS.   

E OF 110W 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES...AND 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS.  
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  S OF 
10N...MODERATE TO FRESH SW CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW PERSIST THROUGH 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES