000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 9 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT. MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...MAINLY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY 
OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN 83W AND 88W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC 
TURNING IS EVIDENT N OF 10N...HOWEVER ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE JUST AHEAD OF 
THE WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 11N.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N84W 7N95W 13N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W AND 193W AND WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 113W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 15N140W. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW NE OF 
HAWAII MOVING SE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND INCREASE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE 
REGION...EVIDENT N OF 20N IN IR IMAGERY. MEANWHILE BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO SE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 
20N129W. THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NW FORECAST 
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

W OF 100W MODERATE AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
10N AND 14N WITHIN 100 NM OF 11N110W. REMNANTS OF KRISTY ARE 
BARELY EVIDENT NEAR 15N133W ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH VERY LITTLE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. E OF 110W CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES...AND NOCTURNAL 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. EXPECT 
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS. S OF 10N...MODERATE TO FRESH SW CROSS EQUITORIAL FLOW 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN