000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 9 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT.  TERRAIN UPLIFT 
OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION 
EARLIER IN AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DECREASE INTENSITY AND 
COVERAGE AS AXIS MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRON
DOES NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE BUT WILL BECOME LESS ADVERSE AS WAVE 
MOVES W.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W MOVING W 10 KT.  WEAK EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 9N AND WAVE AXIS HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH LESS 
HOSTILE THAN PREVIOUS WAVE...REMAINS ADVERSE AT THIS TIME BUT 
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 10N85W 11N92W 7N100W 12N115W 10N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 
110W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 
120W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W REACHES CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
20N137W THEN CONTINUES TO 9N134W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS N OF 15N 
INTERRUPTED BY MOIST SWATH ALONG ITCZ S OF 12N.  GOOD CONVERGENT 
FLOW VICINITY REMNANTS OF KRISTY AIDING IN ITS DEMISE...ALTHOUGH 
OCCASIONAL BURST OF CONVECTION IN NW QUADRANT ONLY EXTENDING THE
AGONY.  

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 20N118W HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND E OF 120W TO 23N107W THEN WELL E OF 85W N OF 10N. 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ 
CONVECTION ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT 
KEEPING LID N OF 10N.  MOIST UPPER LEVELS N OF ITCZ E OF 97W.

AT LOW LEVELS...LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF KRISTY...AT 15N132W 1009 
MB DRIFTING W.  BURSTS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE 
...MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM IN NW QUADRANT...WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FLARES ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 

OTHERWISE HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF BASIN EXTENDS RIDGE TO 
20N120W WITH MODERATE TRADES N OF 15N W OF 130W KEPT ALIVE BY 
GRADIENT SQUEEZE NW OF REMNANTS OF KRISTY.  

MOIST AND WARM CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW WIND BRINGING MODERATE 
SWELLS S OF 10N E OF 110W.  
 
$$
WALLY BARNES