000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 8 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT.  TERRAIN UPLIFT 
OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING 
HAS DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W OF AXIS.  
CONTINUED DRIFT OF WAVE AXIS TO THE WEST SHOULD DECOUPLE LIFTING 
MECHANISM AND CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE SINCE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRON DOES NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W MOVING W 10 KT.  WEAK EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 8N AND WAVE AXIS HAS MINOR ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
...ALTHOUGH LESS HOSTILE THAN PREVIOUS WAVE...IS NOT FAVORABLE. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 10N85W 7N102W 12N114W 11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 112W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 
127W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N137W THEN 
CONTINUES TO 6N135W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS N OF 15N INTERRUPTED BY 
MOIST SWATH ALONG ITCZ FROM 5N TO 15N.  GOOD CONVERGENT FLOW 
VICINITY REMNANTS OF KRISTY AIDING IN ITS DEMISE...ALTHOUGH 
OCCASIONAL BURST OF CONVECTION IN NW QUADRANT ONLY EXTENDING THE 
AGONY.  

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 20N118W HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND E OF 120W TO 21N102W THEN WELL E OF 85W N OF 10N. 
PLENTY OF TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ 
CONVECTION ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT 
KEEPING LID N OF 10N.  MOIST UPPER LEVELS N OF ITCZ E OF 97W.

AT LOW LEVELS...LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF KRISTY...AT 15N132W 1009 
MB DRIFTING W.  BURSTS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE 
...MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM IN NW QUADRANT...WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FLARES ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 

OTHERWISE HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF BASIN EXTENDS RIDGE TO 
20N120W WITH MODERATE TRADES N OF 15N W OF 130W KEPT ALIVE BY 
GRADIENT SQUEEZE NW OF REMNANTS OF KRISTY.  

MOIST AND WARM CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW WIND BRINGING MODERATE 
SWELLS S OF 10N E OF 110W.  
 
$$
WALLY BARNES